Is Brazil safe for tourists in 2026?
Key Insight
Brazil attracted 9.3 million international tourists in 2025 (+37% YoY), making it the fastest-growing major destination globally — and Travel + Leisure's 2026 Destination of the Year. At the same time, express kidnappings surged 98% in Rio (GSI, Insight Crime), over 54,000 cell phones were stolen in Rio alone (Interlira Reports), executive protection spending jumped 48%, and the global EP market is projected to grow from $427M to $853M by 2032 (Verified Market Research). The data is clear: sophisticated travelers aren't avoiding Brazil, they're investing in smarter security.
Brazil's tourism boom is generating headlines worldwide. Named Travel + Leisure's 2026 Destination of the Year, the country attracted 9.3 million international visitors in 2025 — a 37% year-over-year surge that made it the world's fastest-growing major tourism destination. European arrivals grew 19% year-over-year, with visitors from Spain up 92%, according to Euronews. But the record influx has arrived alongside a parallel safety crisis: 259 suspected methanol poisoning cases since October 2025, a 98% surge in express kidnappings in Rio de Janeiro, over 54,000 cell phones stolen in Rio in 2025, and fresh travel advisories from the U.S., Canadian, and U.K. governments. The executive protection market is projected to nearly double by 2032. This analysis examines what the data says, where the risks actually lie, and how informed travelers are navigating both the opportunity and the complexity.
The Tourism Boom by the Numbers
Brazil's tourism recovery has surpassed every pre-pandemic projection. The numbers tell a story of explosive growth with no signs of slowing.
Brazil tourism fully recovered from COVID-19 and reached a record 9.3 million visitors in 2025 (+37% YoY). Source: Ministry of Tourism, EMBRATUR
Where Visitors Are Going
Sao Paulo leads with 2.5 million international arrivals, followed by Rio de Janeiro with nearly 2 million and Rio Grande do Sul with 1.5 million. European visitors totaled 1.8 million in 2025, growing 19% year-over-year, with Spain surging 92% compared to three years ago, according to Euronews. Argentina remains the top source market at 3.1 million tourists, followed by Chile, the United States, and Uruguay.
The concentration in Sao Paulo and Rio has practical security implications: these cities have the most developed infrastructure for visitor protection, including established executive protection services, monitored tourist zones, and international-standard medical facilities.
Economic Momentum
Tourism now contributes 8% of Brazil's GDP, generating R$7.3 billion in direct revenue during 2025. The luxury segment is growing even faster — Brazil's luxury market expanded from R$74 billion in 2022 toward a projected R$133 billion by 2030. Major brands including Tiffany & Co. and Guerlain have opened flagship locations in Sao Paulo, signaling long-term confidence in Brazil's affluent consumer base.
The Safety Paradox — Record Tourism Meets Real Risks
Brazil's dual identity as both a premier destination and a complex risk environment defines the 2026 travel landscape. Three developments demand attention.
Methanol Poisoning Crisis (October 2025 — Present)
A contamination crisis affecting adulterated spirits — gin, whiskey, and vodka sold in bars and liquor stores — has produced 259 suspected cases nationwide and five confirmed deaths in Sao Paulo since October 2025, with 12 additional deaths under investigation. Authorities made 41 arrests and closed four clandestine factories. The U.S. Embassy in Brazil, Canada, and the U.K. have issued specific travel advisories citing the risk.
Practical mitigation: purchase alcohol only from established restaurants, hotel bars, and licensed retailers. Avoid unlabeled or suspiciously inexpensive spirits. If you feel unexpectedly ill after consuming alcohol, seek medical attention immediately.
CNN, Healio, U.S. Embassy Brazil, Journal of Travel Medicine
Express Kidnappings — 98% Surge in Rio
Express kidnappings surged 98% in Rio de Janeiro, according to GSI and Insight Crime, with criminals now forcing victims to make mobile app transfers via PIX rather than traditional ATM withdrawals. Over 54,000 cell phones were stolen or robbed in Rio in 2025 — one every seven minutes, per Interlira Reports — with Copacabana seeing a 40% increase in armed beach robberies during peak tourist season. The Canadian government added Brazil to its high-alert list in February 2026 specifically for gang violence and express kidnappings.
GSI, Insight Crime, Interlira Reports, Statista, Canada Travel Advisory
Current Government Travel Advisories
Crime Data in Context
Despite these challenges, Brazil's national homicides fell 11% in 2025 — from 38,374 to 34,086 — recording the lowest rate in over a decade at 16 per 100,000 residents, according to OSAC. Sao Paulo state leads the improvement at 4.5 per 100,000, representing a 91% decline from 51.9 per 100,000 in 2001. Property crimes, however, are rising: Sao Paulo robberies increased 17% between 2012 and 2022, per Rio Times.
OSAC, Rio Times, Sinesp/Ministry of Justice, FBSP 2024
Brazil's homicide rate fell 11% to a decade low. Sao Paulo leads at 4.5 per 100K — down 91% since 2001. Source: FBSP, Sinesp
Sao Paulo records 4.5 homicides per 100K — Brazil's safest state, down 91% since 2001. Source: FBSP 2024
Executive Protection Market — Why Corporate Security Is Surging
The executive protection industry is experiencing its most dramatic growth in decades, driven by a convergence of rising threat awareness, high-profile incidents, and expanding global travel.
The EP market is projected to double to $854M by 2032. Corporate spending per executive rose 118.9% since 2021. Sources: Verified Market Research, Equilar
Global EP Market Trajectory
The executive protection market is projected to grow from $427.82 million in 2024 to $853.71 million by 2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of 10.37%. This doubling reflects a fundamental shift in how corporations and family offices approach travel risk — from optional luxury to essential business investment.
Verified Market Research, 2024
S&P 500 Corporate EP Spending
Median executive protection spending among S&P 500 companies reached $94,276 per executive in 2024, up 118.9% from $43,200 in 2021. Nearly one-third of S&P 500 companies now provide security perks, up 47.6% since 2021. The post-UHC assassination environment has accelerated this trend dramatically — Intel raised CEO security spending by 8,000%, Lockheed Martin by 797.6%, and Meta spent $27 million on Zuckerberg's security in 2024.
Equilar Proxy Statement Analysis, Harvard Law School Corporate Governance Forum
Brazil-Specific Demand
Corporate EP demand in Brazil increased 48% in 2025, driven by the tourism boom, escalating business travel, and heightened risk awareness following government advisories. GardaWorld now protects over 200 billionaires globally, and tech-enabled security solutions incorporating AI surveillance and predictive analytics have grown 33%.
Industry reports, Globe and Mail
City-by-City Risk Assessment — Where to Go and What to Expect
Brazil's safety profile varies dramatically by city and even by neighborhood within cities. Here is what the data shows for the three cities most visited by executive and luxury travelers.
Security classification of Brazil's 27 states. Sao Paulo (green) at 4.5 per 100K is the safest state. Sources: FBSP, SSP-SP, ISP-RJ
Sao Paulo leads across all security dimensions except security cost. Source: Vanguard Attache Analysis
2.7M international arrivals in 2025
4.5 per 100,000 (state) — lowest in Brazil, down 91% since 2001
Smartphone theft; express kidnapping (low in business districts)
Jardins, Itaim Bibi, Vila Olimpia, Pinheiros, Faria Lima corridor
Sao Paulo is the safest major city in Brazil by a significant margin. Tourists and executives staying in the western business corridor (Jardins to Vila Olimpia) experience crime rates comparable to upscale European districts. The primary risk is opportunistic phone theft, which is almost entirely preventable with basic awareness.
2.2M international arrivals in 2025
~17.1 per 100,000 (metro) — at national average
Express kidnapping (metro region); street crime in tourist zones
Leblon, Ipanema, Lagoa, Gavea, Barra da Tijuca (gated areas)
Rio de Janeiro presents a more complex risk profile than Sao Paulo. The Zona Sul (Leblon, Ipanema) offers genuine safety in a stunning setting, but the geographic proximity of favelas to tourist areas means risks can shift within a few blocks. Professional route planning and local intelligence make a material difference in Rio.
Business travel focused — diplomatic and government hub
~12 per 100,000 — moderate
Vehicle-based crime on highways between government zones
Plano Piloto (Asa Sul, Asa Norte), Lago Sul, hotel sectors
Brasilia is structurally safe within the Plano Piloto — the planned capital's grid design offers natural surveillance and wide avenues. Risks concentrate on the satellite cities and highway connections. Business travelers moving between government, embassy, and hotel zones face minimal personal risk with basic precautions.
District-Level Security Maps
Granular analysis based on official SSP-SP and ISP-RJ data. Each district classified across 4 risk tiers.
Sao Paulo — 96 Districts
Jardins, Itaim Bibi, and Vila Olimpia (green) record the lowest crime rates. Source: SSP-SP 2024
Rio de Janeiro — 161 Neighborhoods
Leblon, Ipanema, and Lagoa (green) in the Zona Sul offer the lowest risk. Copacabana (yellow) requires nighttime caution. Source: ISP-RJ 2024
Seasonal risk by city: June through August is the safest period across all cities. Sources: SSP-SP, ISP-RJ, FBSP
2026 Event Calendar — High-Profile Events Requiring Security Planning
Six major events in 2026 will attract high-net-worth and high-profile attendees to Brazil, each creating unique security dynamics.
Six mega-events in 2026 will attract millions of high-profile visitors to Brazil. Each creates unique security dynamics.
Carnival (Rio & Sao Paulo)
Brazil's largest annual event generated $3.6 billion in economic impact. Sao Paulo hosted 600+ street blocos. Express kidnappings and cell phone thefts spiked during the celebration period, as they do every year.
Golden Globes at Copacabana Palace
First ceremony ever held outside the United States. Unprecedented concentration of celebrity and media presence in Rio. Security perimeter and access control will be extensive.
South Summit Brazil (Porto Alegre)
Major tech conference attracting startup founders and investors. Porto Alegre has a different risk profile than Rio or SP — lower violent crime but less developed tourist security infrastructure.
UN Tourism Summit (Rio de Janeiro)
Diplomatic security protocols will be in effect. Heightened police presence benefits all visitors during the summit period.
Rock in Rio
Ten-day music festival featuring Elton John, Stray Kids, and others. Large crowd dynamics, transportation bottlenecks, and hotel price surges in Barra da Tijuca. Security demand second only to Carnival.
F1 Sao Paulo Grand Prix
Luxury packages from EUR 1,250 per person. Paddock Club guests spend $6,500-$25,000. After 2017 armed robberies targeting F1 personnel, all teams now use bullet-proof vehicles with darkened windows. VIP attendees should follow suit.
Frequently Asked Questions
Questions about Brazil tourism, safety, and executive protection in 2026
Brazil attracted 9.3 million international tourists in 2025, a 37% increase from the previous year, making it the world's fastest-growing major tourism destination. The government is targeting 10 million visitors in 2026, with 1.4 million arriving in January alone.
Yes. As of February 2026, 259 suspected methanol poisoning cases nationwide, five confirmed deaths in Sao Paulo, and 12 additional deaths under investigation have been linked to adulterated spirits, according to CNN and Healio. Authorities made 41 arrests and closed four clandestine factories. The U.S., Canadian, and U.K. governments have issued specific advisories. Travelers should purchase alcohol only from established restaurants, hotel bars, and licensed retailers.
The U.S. State Department maintains Brazil at Level 2: Exercise Increased Caution. The advisory specifically cites kidnapping and violent crime, with particular warnings for favelas and peripheral urban zones. This is the same advisory level as France, Italy, and the United Kingdom.
Executive protection in Brazil typically ranges from $800-$3,500 per day depending on the threat level, team size, and services required. For context, S&P 500 companies spend a median of $94,276 per executive annually on security, up 118.9% since 2021.
Sao Paulo state has the lowest homicide rate of all 27 Brazilian states at 4.5 per 100,000 — a 91% decline from its 2001 peak of 51.9. Within the city, the western business corridor (Jardins, Itaim Bibi, Vila Olimpia) offers safety levels comparable to upscale European districts.
Six major events: Carnival (February), Golden Globes at Copacabana Palace (March 18 — first ceremony outside the US), South Summit Brazil (March 25-27), UN Tourism Summit, Rock in Rio (September 4-13, 700,000+ attendees), and the F1 Sao Paulo Grand Prix (November 6-8, 292,000+ attendees).
The global executive protection market is projected to grow from $427.82 million in 2024 to $853.71 million by 2032, a 10.37% compound annual growth rate. Corporate EP demand in Brazil specifically increased 48% in 2025.
The primary risk for tourists in Sao Paulo is opportunistic smartphone theft, not violent crime. Most robbery incidents target mobile phones. Carrying a secondary decoy phone, keeping devices concealed in crowded areas, and staying in established neighborhoods virtually eliminates this risk.
June through August offers the lowest risk period across all major cities, combining mild weather in the southeast with lower crime rates and fewer large-scale events. Avoid Carnival week (February) and major event periods unless you have professional security arrangements.
The data strongly suggests yes for senior executives and UHNW travelers. Nearly one-third of S&P 500 companies now provide executive security, up 47.6% since 2021. Professional security in Brazil provides route planning, threat intelligence, secure transportation, and emergency response — addressing the specific risks (PIX kidnappings, route-based attacks) that corporate travelers face.
How Smart Travelers Approach Brazil in 2026
The data reveals a clear pattern: informed travelers are not avoiding Brazil — they are investing in preparation. Here is the framework used by corporate security directors and family offices.
Pre-Trip Security Planning
Engage local executive protection or security consultation at least 30 days before travel
Obtain a destination-specific risk briefing (not a generic country report)
Verify travel insurance covers medical evacuation, including helicopter extraction from Rio
Register with your embassy's citizen notification system (STEP for Americans)
Establish a check-in protocol and emergency contacts with your security provider
On-the-Ground Security
Use pre-arranged secure transportation — never hail taxis on the street
Keep smartphones concealed in public transit areas and crowded zones
Carry a secondary decoy phone (older model) to surrender in a robbery
Avoid displaying watches, jewelry, or luxury items in non-hotel settings
Maintain digital security: use VPN, disable Bluetooth, avoid public WiFi for financial transactions
Purchase alcohol only from established restaurants, hotel bars, and licensed retailers
Seasonal Risk Awareness
Risk levels in Brazil fluctuate significantly by month and city. Sao Paulo maintains the lowest risk year-round, with the best window being June through August. Rio peaks during Carnival (February) and major event periods. Understanding these patterns allows travelers to time visits for optimal safety.
The Bottom Line — Opportunity Requires Preparation
Brazil's 2026 tourism landscape presents a clear dual narrative: extraordinary opportunity alongside genuine complexity. The 37% tourism surge, R$7.3 billion in revenue, and six world-class events make the destination more compelling than ever. The methanol crisis, express kidnapping trends, and multiple government advisories make preparation more essential than ever.
The executives, families, and travelers succeeding in this environment share one characteristic: they approach Brazil with the same strategic planning they apply to any high-value investment. Professional security assessment, destination-specific intelligence, and local expertise are not optional luxuries — they are the foundation of a successful Brazil experience.
This analysis is based on publicly available data from government agencies, international organizations, and verified industry sources. Conditions change rapidly. Consult current government advisories and engage professional security consultation before travel.